In terms of regional growth, the population of the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area, (MSA) which includes Butler, Harvey and Sedgwick Counties, has been both positive and steady. The population of El Dorado has increased at rates faster than the metropolitan area and the State during the past decade: 17.9% compared to 7.7% and 5.0%. The growth rate in the Wichita MSA was also greater than the growth rate for the State of Kansas between 1980 and 1990.

As the population of the City changes, so too does the age structure of the population. The age structure has significant bearing on the future population of the City. Most public services and facilities are designed for a specific age group. For this reason, it is important to examine changes in the age structure as they relate to future needs. For instance, a decrease in the number of women in childbearing years or an increase in persons of retirement age should signal a city to target planning efforts towards educational facilities, senior centers or other related public services.

Figure 2.2 graphically shows population by age group for 1990, and as estimated for 1997 and 2002. The chart shows a general increase in all age groups, with the exception of the ages 25-34 that show a moderate decrease. The greatest increases are shown in the ages between 35-54 and 75 years and older. The chart shows increases in all school aged children and teens, but only moderate increase in persons in their late teens and early twenties. By comparison with the Wichita MSA and the State of Kansas, the city of El Dorado population is 19% elderly in 2002, compared to 12% and 14% for the region and the State (see Appendix A).

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The factors that determine population size and composition are influenced by changes in social and economic trends that are usually uncontrollable by the community. Further, population projections are not an exact science, therefore, it is essential to periodically review the projections to ensure their continuing usefulness to the elements of the Comprehensive Plan.

Population trend projections are released by the Decisionmark Corporation using a proprietary method based on data from the most current U.S. Census updates and estimates including the "Consumer Expenditure Survey," "Current Population Survey" and the "Current Population Report." As the methodology for projections includes "shifting" or extrapolating the county's relative share down to the city level, some degree of error is expected. As the 2000 Census becomes available, additional relevant data will become available and should be considered as part of the recommended annual Comprehensive Plan review.

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Economic characteristics such as employment and income will be analyzed in this section. An analysis of the El Dorado economy which is included in the Wichita MSA, is useful to the Comprehensive Plan for two reasons. First, an analysis of these factors helps to determine future commercial and industrial land use needs. Secondly, an analysis of the area's economy may point out economic deficiencies, which consequently could have impacts on the community.

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One of the best indicators of economic stability is employment. Table 2.6 shows employment by major industry group for residents of Butler County in 1970, 1980, 1990 and 1998. This data provides important information on how the Butler County economy has and is evolving. Total employment during this period almost doubled, increasing by 87%. The largest increase, in terms of percentage increase, was in the agriculture service, forestry, fishing and other sector, while the largest absolute increase was in the service sector.

Table 2.7 gives more data on employment in the Wichita MSA overall. Employment in the Wichita MSA has grown substantially since 1975, as every sector, with the exception of mining, and transportation and public utilities, experienced positive growth overall. The services industry has continued to remain a strong sector, employing the largest number of persons in the metropolitan area. In addition, the services industry experienced the greatest employment increase since 1975. The manufacturing and retail trade sectors placed second and third in the total number of people employed.

As reported in the Winter, 1992 issue of the Kansas Business Review, both manufacturing and retail employment in south central Kansas has dropped since 1989. However, as employment levels nationally continue to decrease, the Wichita economy has been able to absorb similar economic losses. A strong aerospace industry has kept manufacturing employment levels up and cushioned the area from the impacts experienced by many other communities during the recession of the 1980’s.

With approximately 60 percent of all the area's manufacturing jobs in major aircraft plants, the health of the aircraft industry is critical to the region's overall economy. Backlogged orders at all sites for aircraft and parts provide a buffer for the economy in South Central Kansas throughout the next five years. (Kansas Business Review, Winter, 1992)

Table 2.9 shows the city's largest employers, with the El Dorado Correctional Facility employing the greatest number of employees in 1999. The Correctional Facility was originally opened in June, 1991 and now employees approximately 515 persons. Current employment may increase to 600 plus employees with expansion of the facility in the next few years. Another of the area's largest employers is Frontier Oil Corporation with 460 employees.

Unemployment in the City of El Dorado has steadily declined over the past 10 years. According to the Kansas Employment Security Division, the unemployment rate in El Dorado has gone from 8.2% in 1982 to 3.7% in 1991.

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Per capita income is an important economic indicator that reveals the overall wealth of an area. Personal income figures are divided by the population of a community to determine per capita income. Table 2.10 presents per capita income for Butler, Harvey and Sedgwick Counties and, for comparison, the State of Kansas.

Per capita income in Butler County has shown growth since 1975 by nearly 200%. Although these figures are not in current dollars, they do reflect the increasing wealth in the County. While per capita income in neighboring Sedgwick County has consistently been above that of the State of Kansas, per capita income in Butler County fell below the State average in 1985 and 1989.

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